Report

Trans Mountain Pipeline – 2024 Report

Nov 8, 2024

In June 2022, PBO released a report assessing the Government of Canada’s 2018 decision to acquire, expand, operate, and eventually divest of the Trans Mountain Pipeline system.

Given that the Trans Mountain Expansion Pipeline began commercial operations on May 1st, 2024, this report provides a current financial valuation of the Trans Mountain Pipeline system and estimates the valuation’s sensitivity to several key factors.

Highlights

PBO calculated the current present value (PV) in 2024 for the Trans Mountain Pipeline system under two different scenarios.
PBO estimates that a scenario where the initial contracts are renewed has a current value of $33.4 billion, while a reversion to a cost-of-service scenario has a current value of $29.6 billion.
Whether the Government records a profit or a loss on the eventual sale of the Trans Mountain Pipeline system will depend on what someone is willing to pay for it. This can depend on a wide range of factors, such as the number of potential buyers, their cost in raising the required capital, when and how it will be sold, market conditions at the time of sale, whether it will be an arms-length transaction, and/or whether certain groups will be prioritized in the sale.