Report

Estimating Canada’s 2030 Emissions Gap

Nov 26, 2025

This report provides estimates of the gap between Canada’s projected greenhouse gas emissions in 2030 and the Government’s legislated target under the Canadian Net-Zero Emissions Accountability Act.

Highlights

Under PBO’s updated projection that accounts for federal policy revisions earlier this year, we estimate Canada’s 2030 emissions gap could range from 49 megatonnes (Mt) to 102 Mt. That is, projected emissions in 2030 could be 49 Mt to 102 Mt above the legislated target of 40-45 per cent below 2005 levels. This would leave Canada’s emissions in 2030 at 33.5 per cent and 31.5 per cent, respectively, below 2005 levels.
While the legislated 2030 target puts the focus on emissions in a milestone year, it is also informative to consider the shortfall in performance over time. Based on the Government’s Pathway to 2030 (40 per cent below 2005 levels), our updated projections indicate that cumulative emissions over 2025 to 2030 could exceed Pathway levels by between 221 Mt (6.7 per cent) and 289 Mt (8.8 per cent).
Given the construction of our updated projection, PBO estimates of Canada’s 2030 emissions gap should be seen as approximate. Our analysis does not attempt to account for potential interactions between the policy revisions, nor does it consider any policy revisions made by provincial and territorial governments earlier this year. That said, our estimate of the 2030 emissions gap is, on balance, lower than recent external estimates.