Report

Demographic Implications of the 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan

Feb 26, 2026

This report analyzes the Government’s 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan in light of recent trends in Canada’s demographics. It also provides an update to PBO’s baseline demographic projection.

Highlights

The 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan sets permanent resident (PR) admission targets at 380,000 per year and reiterates the Government’s commitment to reduce the non-permanent resident (NPR) population to less than 5 per cent of Canada’s total population by the end of 2027.
PBO projects that the share of NPRs in the total population will fall from its 2024 peak of 7.6 per cent to just under 5 per cent by the end of 2027, aligning with the Government’s target. PBO assesses that one time initiatives introduced in the plan will contribute to achieving this outcome.
As the NPR population continues to decline, PBO projects that total population growth will remain flat in 2026 and pick up only modestly to 0.3 per cent in 2027. Over the medium term, PBO projects population growth to stabilize around 0.8 per cent annually, which is below its historical average of 1.1 per cent per year.