Additional Analyses

• Fiscal multipliers Jan 17, 2025 This additional analysis provides PBO’s updated estimates of the potential impacts of revenue and spending measures on the Canadian economy.
• Impact of the 2025-2027 Immigration Levels Plan on Canada’s Housing Gap Jan 17, 2025 This note presents PBO’s estimate of the impact of the Government’s recently announced immigration plan on the housing gap in Canada.
• Update of Canada’s Military Expenditure and the NATO 2% Spending Target Jan 17, 2025 Projection of Canada’s future Military Expenditures in relation to NATO’s 2% of GDP target.
• Tallying Government Support for EV Investment in Canada Jan 17, 2025 On April 25, 2024, the Prime Minister announced that since 2020, Canada has attracted more than $46 billion in investments across the electric vehicle (EV) supply chain. This note provides a breakdown of these investments and their corresponding government support.
• Proposed changes to the Borrowing Authority Act Jan 17, 2025 This note provides an overview of the Borrowing Authority Act, as well as information on the proposed changes included in Bill C-69.
• Distributional analysis of carbon pricing Jan 17, 2025 This note provides information related to the Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO)’s March 2022 distributional analysis of federal carbon pricing.
• Distributional analysis of carbon pricing Jan 17, 2025 This note provides information related to the Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO)’s March 2022 distributional analysis of federal carbon pricing.
• The sensitivity of fiscal projections to economic shocks – April 2024 Jan 17, 2025 PBO periodically provides estimates of the sensitivity of the fiscal outlook to key economic indicators that drive our federal fiscal projection: real GDP growth, GDP inflation and interest rates. PBO estimated the impacts of shocks to these economic indicators relative to its March 2024 fiscal outlook.
• Support for EV battery manufacturing – Update on foregone CIT revenue Jan 17, 2025 In February, Regulations came into force that exempt production subsidies payable to Volkswagen (PowerCo) and Stellantis-LGES (NextStar) from corporate income tax (CIT). This note provides a brief review of the corporate tax treatment of the production subsidies for EV battery manufacturing and compares estimates of foregone federal CIT revenue.
• Full-Time Equivalents in the Federal Public Service – 2024-25 Departmental Plans Jan 17, 2025 Over 2006-07 to 2022-23 the federal public service expanded from 335,000 full-time equivalents (FTEs) to 432,000—an increase of over 96,000 FTEs.
• Personnel Expenditure Analysis Tool Update: 2022-23 Personnel Expenditures Jan 17, 2025 Over the last year, excluding one-time payments, total spending on personnel increased by 5.6 per cent—well above pre-pandemic (2007-08 to 2019-20) average annual growth of 3.1 per cent. However, smaller one-time payments related to actuarial deficiencies in the Government’s Superannuation Account led to a 6.9 per cent decrease in total personnel spending, from $60.7 billion in 2021-22 to $56.5 billion in 2022-23.
• Costing Support for EV Battery Manufacturing – Factual information Jan 17, 2025 This note addresses misstatements in the media related to Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO)’s November 17 report, Costing Support for EV Battery Manufacturing.
• Energy sector and agriculture: federal revenue forgone from tax provisions Jan 17, 2025 On June 15, 2023, PBO published the report “Update on the energy sector and agriculture: federal revenue forgone from tax provisions” which examined the cost of tax provisions specific to fossil fuel development and the lost revenue from exemptions to the federal fuel charge for agriculture. The PBO was requested to provide the estimated forgone revenue from the federal fuel charge exemption in agriculture on an annual basis from 2023 to 2030. This additional analysis contains the additional information.
• Bill C-234: Extension of the exemption for qualifying farming fuel to marketable natural gas and propane – Updated cost estimate Jan 17, 2025 The PBO has updated the cost of C-234.
• Full-Time Equivalents in the Federal Public Service – 2023-24 Departmental Plans Jan 17, 2025 Over 2006-07 to 2021-22 the federal public service expanded from 335,000 full-time equivalents (FTEs) to 413,000—an increase of 78,000 FTEs.
• The sensitivity of fiscal projections to economic shocks Jan 17, 2025 PBO periodically provides estimates of the sensitivity of the fiscal outlook to key economic indicators that drive our federal fiscal projection: real GDP growth, GDP inflation and interest rates. PBO estimated the impacts of shocks to these economic indicators relative to its October 2022 fiscal outlook.
• Public Debt Charges Calculator Update Jan 17, 2025 We have updated the Public Debt Charges (PDC) calculator to reflect new interest rate projections from our October Economic and Fiscal Outlook (EFO). This analysis compares effective interest rate projections before and after the update, as well as their impact on public debt charges.
• Comparison of Real GDP Growth Forecasts Jan 17, 2025 PBO’s most recent Economic and Fiscal Outlook (EFO) was published on October 13 and incorporated economic data up to and including September 30. This note provides a comparison of PBO’s real GDP growth projection to recent external forecasts.
• Canada’s Military Expenditure and the NATO 2% Spending Target: Additional Analysis Jan 17, 2025 This Additional Analysis presents findings from new data on the Department of National Defence’s calculation of total military expenditures between fiscal years 2014-15 and 2016-17.
• Updated fiscal cost of Bill C-234 Jan 17, 2025 On February 7, 2022, a related bill, Bill C-234, An Act to amend the Greenhouse Gas Pollution Pricing Act, was introduced in Parliament. The bill expands the list of farming machinery eligible for the federal carbon tax exemption to include: a) property used for the purpose of providing heating or cooling to a building or similar structure, including those used for raising or housing livestock, and; b) grain dryers.
• Federal Infrastructure Spending, 2016-17 to 2026-27 Jan 17, 2025 This note provides additional information related to federal infrastructure spending in Canada between 2016-17 to 2026-27.
• Additional information – Bill C-83 and the Cost of Structured Intervention Units Jan 17, 2025
• Bill C-206: Extension of the exemption for qualifying farming fuel to marketable natural gas and propane – Fiscal cost over a ten-year period Jan 17, 2025
• Additional information - Energy sector and agriculture: federal revenue forgone from tax provisions Jan 17, 2025
• Update: Cost of Federal Leave for COVID-19 Jan 17, 2025
• Public debt charges calculator (update) Jan 17, 2025
• Canada’s purchase of the Trans Mountain Pipeline: Financial and Economic Considerations – Updated CDEV Financial Reporting – May 2021 Jan 17, 2025
• Distributional and Fiscal Analysis of a National Guaranteed Basic Income – A focus on Canadians with a disability Jan 17, 2025
• Canada Infrastructure Bank: Status of investments up to 2020-21 Q3 Jan 17, 2025
• Update: Cost of Federal Leave for COVID-19 Jan 17, 2025
• Fiscal Multipliers and Fiscal Sensitivities Jan 17, 2025
• Supplementary information on the simplifying the home office expense deduction Jan 17, 2025
• Analysis of Federal Debt: 2020-21 Jan 17, 2025
• The Outlook for the EI Operating Account Jan 17, 2025
• Supplementary information on the costing of indexing the maximum per capita payment under the Fiscal Stabilization Program Jan 17, 2025
• Costing Fall Economic Statement 2020 Measures Jan 17, 2025
• Federal Investments in Palliative Care Jan 17, 2025
• Update: Cost of Federal Leave for COVID-19 Jan 17, 2025
• Update: Five-Year Cost Estimate of the Guaranteed Basic Income Jan 17, 2025
• Planned Capital Spending under Strong, Secure, Engaged: 2020 Update Jan 17, 2025
• Update: Cost of New Federal Leave for COVID-19 Jan 17, 2025
• Canada’s purchase of the Trans Mountain Pipeline: Financial and Economic Considerations – Updated CDEV Financial Reporting – July 2020 Jan 17, 2025
• Supplementary blog post on the Investing in Canada plan Jan 17, 2025
• Federal debt: Frequently Asked Questions Jan 17, 2025
• Supplementary Estimates (A) 2020-21 Jan 17, 2025
• Explaining the Cost Estimate of the Canada Emergency Commercial Rent Assistance Program Jan 17, 2025
• OGGO - Follow-up analysis to the "Government’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic" Jan 17, 2025
• NFFN - Follow-up analysis to the "Government’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic and its economic consequences" Jan 17, 2025
• PBO’s estimate of federal fiscal room in Fiscal Sustainability Report 2020 Jan 17, 2025
• Update on the Allocation of Funding under the Federal Provincial Territorial Partnership in Housing Jan 17, 2025
• The Outlook for the EI Operating Account Jan 17, 2025
• Canada’s purchase of the Trans Mountain Pipeline: Financial and Economic Considerations – Updated CDEV Financial Reporting (November 2019) Jan 17, 2025
• Supplementary Estimates (A) 2019-20 Jan 17, 2025
• Supplementary Estimates (A) 2019-20 Jan 17, 2025
• Public debt charges calculator Jan 17, 2025
• Canada’s purchase of the Trans-Mountain Pipeline: Financial and Economic Considerations – Updated CDEV Financial Reporting Jan 17, 2025
• Cost of Administering the Federal Fuel Charge and Climate Action Incentive Jan 17, 2025
• PBO’s Comments on Budget 2019 Jan 17, 2025
• Canada’s purchase of the Trans Mountain Pipeline – Financial and Economic Considerations - Update Jan 17, 2025
• Labour Market Assessment 2018: Wage inequality – Update Jan 17, 2025
• FSR 2017 – Provincial-Territorial Health Care Cost Drivers Jan 17, 2025
• FINA - Follow-up analysis on "Economic and Fiscal Outlook - October 2017 Jan 17, 2025
• HESA - Follow-up analysis to "Federal Cost of a National Pharmacare Program" Jan 17, 2025
• FSR 2017 – Fiscal projection methodology follow-up Jan 17, 2025
• Excise tax on legalized cannabis Jan 17, 2025
• Legal opinion on PBO mandate pending Jan 17, 2025