Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer

Comparison of Real GDP Growth Forecasts

PBO’s most recent Economic and Fiscal Outlook (EFO) was published on October 13 and incorporated economic data up to and including September 30. This note provides a comparison of PBO’s real GDP growth projection to recent external forecasts.

PBO’s most recent Economic and Fiscal Outlook (EFO) was published on October 13 and incorporated economic data up to and including September 30. This note provides a comparison of PBO’s real GDP growth projection to recent external forecasts.

PBO’s projection of Canadian real GDP growth in 2022 (Figure 1) and 2023 (Figure 2) in its October EFO is well within the range of recent external forecasters surveyed by Consensus Economics in October (released on October 13).

The Consensus Economics October survey also included longer-term consensus forecasts. Figure 3 compares PBO’s October EFO real GDP projection for Canada over 2022 to 2027 with the October consensus forecast over the same period. Over the period 2022 to 2027, PBO projects real GDP growth in Canada to average 2.1 per cent annually, which is in line with the consensus forecast (2.05 per cent annually on average).