Reports - 2018-19

• Infrastructure Update: Investments in Provinces and Municipalities - Revised: Table 3-1
  Mar 13, 2019 • RP-1819-396
  The report examines infrastructure investments made by provinces and some municipalities with the objective to identify the incremental impact of federal infrastructure funding on provincial and municipal capital investment.
• Fiscal Analysis of the Interim F-18 Aircraft
  Feb 28, 2019 • RP-1819-397
  This report presents a fiscal analysis of the Government of Canada’s purchase of 18 used F-18 aircraft from Australia.
• The cost differential between three regimes of Veterans Benefits
  Feb 21, 2019 • RP-1819-395
  The Government of Canada has had three different regimes for veterans benefits since 2006: the Pension Act (up to 2006); the Veterans Well-being Act (from 2006 to 2019); and, Pension for Life (which takes effect on April 1, 2019). Several parliamentarians requested that the Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO) prepare an estimate of the fiscal cost of each of these regimes over the medium term.
• Economic and Fiscal Monitor – February 2019
  Feb 12, 2019 • RP-1819-394
  This report provides an in-year estimate of Canada’s gross domestic product (GDP) in 2018 and the Government of Canada’s budgetary balance in 2018 19, based on data released since our October 2018 Economic and Fiscal Outlook, up to and including 8 February 2019.
• Supplementary Estimates (B) 2018-19
  Feb 7, 2019 • RP-1819-393
  This note presents a detailed analysis of the Government’s second supplementary estimates for the 2018-19 fiscal year, which seeks Parliament’s approval of $2.5 billion.
• Labour Market Assessment 2018: Wage inequality – Update
  Feb 1, 2019 • RP-1819-496
  This note updates selected results from our assessment published in October 2018, incorporating recently released data for the fourth quarter of 2018.
• Canada’s purchase of the Trans Mountain Pipeline – Economic and Financial Considerations
  Jan 31, 2019 • RP-1819-392
  This report provides financial and economic analysis relating to the Government of Canada’s This report provides financial and economic analysis relating to the Government of Canada’s purchase of the Trans Mountain Pipeline, Expansion Project and related assets.of the Trans Mountain Pipeline, Expansion Project and related assets.
• Cost Estimate for Bill C-399 “Fairness for Persons with Disabilities Act”
  Jan 29, 2019 • RP-1819-390
  This report responds to a request of Mr. Tom Kmiec, the member for Calgary Shepard, to estimate the financial cost of Bill C-399, which broadens eligibility for the disability tax credit for persons spending extensive time on therapy to support their vital functions.
• PBO and Finance Canada Long-term Projection Comparison
  Jan 17, 2019 • RP-1819-389
  Consistent with the PBO's legislated mandate, this report provides a comparison of long-term economic and fiscal projections prepared by Finance Canada and PBO in 2018.
• Costing 2018 Fall Economic Statement and Off-Cycle Measures
  Jan 17, 2019 • RP-1819-388
  In preparation of the upcoming 2019 federal general election, PBO used the 2018 Fall Economic Statement as an opportunity to assess its existing capacity to cost a variety of policy initiatives within a short period of time.
• Fall Economic Statement 2018: Issues for Parliamentarians
  Dec 11, 2018 • RP-1819-387
  To assist parliamentarians in their pre-budget deliberations, this report identifies key issues arising from the Government’s Fall Economic Statement published on 21 November 2018.
• Costing Irregular Migration across Canada’s Southern Border
  Nov 29, 2018 • RP-1819-386
  MP Larry Maguire (Brandon – Souris, CPC) requested the PBO to prepare an estimate of the total and projected costs to the federal government in managing the increase in irregular arrivals. This report presents an average unit cost per refugee claimant, based on the costs associated with the federal organizations involved in the asylum process, as well as a sensitivity analysis of future costs.
• Cost Estimate of a Reduction in the Federal Corporate Income Tax Rate
  Nov 27, 2018 • RP-1819-385
  This report responds to a request to provide the estimated fiscal cost of reducing the federal corporate income tax rate by 1 percentage point per year over 6 years. By the end of 6 years, this presents a combined federal-provincial statutory rate of 20.7%.
• Supplementary Estimates (A) 2018-19
  Nov 8, 2018 • RP-1819-384
  This note presents a detailed analysis of the Government’s first supplementary estimates for the 2018-19 fiscal year, which seeks Parliament’s approval of $7.5 billion.
• The Strategic Personnel Generation Model (SPGM) Version 1.0
  Nov 6, 2018 • RP-1819-383
  This note provides a technical description of a “personnel generation” model that estimates, and forecasts costs associated with, increases in military personnel. Personnel generation is central to military organizations; it is the first modelled within PBO’s family of tools designed to assess the overall defence portfolio.
• Labour Market Assessment - 2018
  Oct 23, 2018 • RP-1819-381
  This report provides parliamentarians with an assessment of the state of Canada’s labour market. It examines labour market indicators relative to their trend estimates, and looks at wage inequality at the national level, as well as across provinces and by gender.
• Economic and Fiscal Outlook - October 2018 - Revised Oct. 31, 2018
  Oct 23, 2018 • RP-1819-382
  Consistent with the Parliamentary Budget Officer’s legislated mandate, this report provides PBO’s economic and fiscal outlook. The Canadian economy continued to operate above its potential output in the first half of 2018. Fuelled by strong export growth, real GDP growth averaged 2.2 per cent in the first two quarters of the year. As underlying inflation moved up to the 2 per cent target and wage growth improved, the Bank of Canada raised its policy interest rate by 25 basis points in January and again in July.
• Cost Estimate for Motion M-141: Amending the Employment Insurance Act
  Oct 4, 2018 • RP-1819-380
  This report estimates the increase in Employment Insurance (EI) benefits payable following the implementation of private member’s motion M-141. This motion amends section 55 of the Employment Insurance Act to allow spouses of (i) military personnel and (ii) foreign service personnel to qualify for Employment Insurance while posted outside of Canada.
• Fiscal Sustainability Report 2018
  Sep 27, 2018 • RP-1819-379
  This report provides PBO’s assessment of the sustainability of government finances over the long term for the federal government, subnational governments and public pension plans. The objective of this report is to identify if changes to current fiscal policy are required to avoid unsustainable government debt accumulation and to estimate the magnitude of these changes.
• PBO's Approach to Measuring Potential GDP
  Aug 22, 2018 • RP-1819-498
  Potential GDP is a measure of the sustainable productive capacity of an economy. It is typically defined as the level of output that can be achieved with available resources (e.g., labour, capital and technology) without creating inflationary pressures. As such, potential GDP provides a natural benchmark for assessing economic performance at a macro level.
• Status Report on Phase 1 of the Investing in Canada Plan
  Aug 22, 2018 • RP-1819-497
  This report a status update on Phase 1 of the Government’s Investing in Canada Plan, which was announced in Budget 2016 and intended to provide a short-term economic boost to the economy.
• Extended April 2018 Economic and Fiscal Outlook
  Jul 18, 2018 • RP-1819-499
  In preparation for the financial costing of election campaign proposals in 2019, the PBO is taking this opportunity to produce an extended outlook and line-item costing. The PBO encourages parliamentarians and their political parties to provide feedback regarding this initiative.
• Taxation of employer-provided health-benefits - Revised June 1, 2018
  May 24, 2018 • RP-1819-378
  Using Statistics Canada’s Social Policy Simulation Database and Model (SPSD/M), the Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO) estimated the federal fiscal impact of including the value employer-paid health plans in the taxable income of employees. The PBO determined that this measure would increase federal personal income tax receipts by $2.8 billion, increase CPP contributions by $532 million and decrease transfer payments to individuals by $441 million. All these amount to an increase of $3.8 billion of the federal government’s net balance.
• The Impact of a Pan-Canadian Carbon Pricing Levy on PBO’s GDP Projection
  May 22, 2018 • RP-1819-377
  This report provides additional detail related to the economic impact of the carbon pricing levy presented in PBO’s April 2018 Economic and Fiscal Outlook. In PBO’s April 2018 Economic and Fiscal Outlook (EFO), we incorporated the economic impact of a carbon pricing levy, rising to $50 per tonne in 2022, that would apply over our medium-term projection horizon.
• Cost Estimate for Bill C-394: An Act to amend the Income Tax Act (parenting tax credit)
  May 10, 2018 • RP-1819-376
  Consistent with PBO’s mandate, this report estimates the net fiscal cost resulting from an implementation of a private member’s bill, Bill C-394 which amends the Income Tax Act to establish a tax credit with respect to maternal and parental benefits, and would "provide a tax credit that would offset any taxes owing on their maternity and parental leave."
• The Government’s Expenditure Plan and Main Estimates 2018-19
  May 1, 2018 • RP-1819-375
  This note examines the federal government’s Expenditure Plan and Main Estimates for 2018-19, which supports the second appropriation bill that will seek Parliament’s approval of $112.9 billion.
• Patent restoration and the cost of pharmaceuticals
  Apr 26, 2018 • RP-1819-374
  This report pulls together a number of databases so as to estimate the cost of recent regulatory changes governing patented pharmaceuticals. It compares the cost of patented innovative medicines with that of non-patented prescription medicines. That comparison is then used to make inferences regarding the annual cost of prolonging market exclusivity for a class of drugs similar to patented innovative medicines.
• Economic and Fiscal Outlook - April 2018 - Report revised May 14, 2018
  Apr 23, 2018 • RP-1819-372
  Consistent with the Parliamentary Budget Officer’s legislated mandate, this report provides PBO’s economic and fiscal outlook. Growth in the Canadian economy slowed sharply in the second half of 2017 following robust advances in the first half of the year. Beginning in 2018, we project that growth in exports will rebound from a weak second half of 2017 as consumer spending decelerates and residential investment contracts.
• Costing Budget 2018 Measures
  Apr 23, 2018 • RP-1819-371
  In preparation of the upcoming 2019 federal general election, PBO used Budget 2018 as an opportunity to assess its existing capacity to cost a variety of policy initiatives within a short period of time. Upon publication of Budget 2018, PBO assessed all new measures for their eligibility for independent costing.
• The Borrowing Authority Act and Measures of Federal Debt
  Apr 23, 2018 • RP-1819-373
  Recent changes to the Financial Administration Act require the Government of Canada to seek parliamentary approval to borrow in debt markets. The Government has done so with the Borrowing Authority Act, which came into force on 23 November 2017. This report was prepared to address two areas of confusion that have arisen in committees and debates following Budget 2018: How was this new debt aggregate calculated? How should it be used to scrutinize government borrowing?
• Costing a National Guaranteed Basic Income Using the Ontario Basic Income Model
  Apr 17, 2018 • RP-1819-370
  This report responds to a request of Mr. Pierre Poilievre (Carleton–CPC) to estimate the cost of establishing a guaranteed basic income program at the national level. PBO takes the policy parameters of Ontario’s basic income pilot project and applies them across the country to estimate the cost of a guaranteed basic income (GBI), and then compares the estimated cost to the current federal support for low income. The annual gross cost of expanding the Ontario Basic Income Pilot across the country would amount to an estimated $76.0 billion in 2018-2019. By 2022-2023, it would reach nearly $79.5 billion.