Reports - 2019-20

• Scenario Analysis: COVID-19 Pandemic and Oil Price Shocks
  Mar 27, 2020 • RP-1920-033-S
  This report provides a scenario analysis to help parliamentarians gauge potential economic and fiscal implications of the COVID-19 pandemic and recent oil market developments. This report incorporates data available up to and including 23 March 2020. Unless otherwise specified, all rates are reported at annual rates.
• Estimate of the Impacts of the February 2020 Rail Disruption
  Mar 13, 2020 • RP-1920-032-S
  This note provides PBO’s estimate of the economic and financial impacts of the February 2020 disruption of rail transportation due to blockades of rail lines and other protests. The estimate includes both the direct and indirect impacts from rail transportation, transportation support activities (port disruptions) and urban transit system industries, as well as macroeconomic feedback.
• Surtaxes on Steel, Aluminum, and Other Goods: Issues for Parliamentarians
  Mar 11, 2020 • RP-1920-030
  To assist parliamentarians in their role to scrutinize the raising and spending of public monies, this report provides an overview of the revenues and spending measures associated with the Government of Canada’s surtaxes on steel, aluminum, and other goods.
• Fiscal Sustainability Report 2020
  Feb 27, 2020 • RP-1920-029-S
  This report provides PBO’s assessment of the sustainability of government finances over the long term for the federal government, subnational governments and public pension plans.
• Supplementary Estimates (B) 2019-20
  Feb 26, 2020 • RP-1920-028-S
  This note presents a detailed analysis of the Government’s second supplementary estimates for the 2019-20 fiscal year, which seeks Parliament’s approval of $3.8 billion to be spent before March 31, 2020. --- Supplementary Estimates (B), tabled February 18, 2020 in the House of Commons, outline an additional $5.6 billion in budgetary authorities: $3.8 billion in spending which requires Parliament’s approval and $1.8 billion for which legislative permission already exists. Including these supplementary estimates, the total proposed year-to-date budgetary authorities are $312 billion, which represents a $21.8 billion (7.5 per cent) increase over the 2018-19 estimates to date. Major spending items in these estimates include: - $919 million to the Department of Crown-Indigenous Relations and Northern Affairs for loan forgiveness and reimbursement for comprehensive land claims negotiations; - $487 million to the Department of National Defence for funding capital investments as part of the department’s defence policy, Strong, Secure, Engaged (SSE); - $180 million to the Department of Employment and Social Development to write-off unrecoverable debts for Canada Student Loans; and, - $950 million in statutory authorities to the Department of Natural Resources for the Green Municipal Fund. These estimates will be the last under the temporary change to Standing Order 81, which took effect in 2018-19 and aimed to better align the estimates process with the Budget. As of the 2020-21 fiscal year, the original process will be reintroduced, meaning that the Main Estimates will be tabled prior to the Budget. This will also likely bring back the need for three Supplementary Estimates (in the spring, fall and winter). As a result of these changes, all Budget items will be required to go through detailed Treasury Board (a Committee of Ministers chaired by the President of the Treasury Board) scrutiny prior to funding being sought from Parliament. At the same time, this may mean a longer delay between the announcement of new initiatives and their implementation, as the earliest opportunity to receive approval for the funds will be in the spring Supplementary Estimates (A). PBO also notes that given that the 2018-19 Departmental Results Reports were not presented to Parliament prior to the tabling of the 2019-20 Supplementary Estimates, parliamentarians are required to consider (and approve) the proposed spending without knowing whether any of the organizations achieved their intended results for the previous year.
• Labour Market Assessment – 2020
  Feb 25, 2020 • RP-1920-027-S
  This report provides parliamentarians with an assessment of the state of the labour market in Canada. It examines labour market indicators relative to their trend estimates, that is, the level that would be observed if cyclical fluctuations were excluded. PBO also compares Canada’s labour market performance with that of other advanced economies. In addition, in this report we examine the rise in the labour force participation of the baby boom generation.
• Economic and Fiscal Monitor - February 2020
  Feb 13, 2020 • RP-1920-026
  This report provides a real-time estimate of growth in Canada’s gross domestic product (GDP) and the Government of Canada’s budgetary balance in 2019-20 based on data released since our November 2019 Economic and Fiscal Outlook, up to and including 7 February 2020. All rates are reported at annual rates unless otherwise noted.
• Considerations Regarding the 2020 Tax and Spending Review
  Feb 11, 2020 • RP-1920-025
  The purpose of this report is to provide an initial overview of how the PBO plans to monitor the Government’s plan on achieving its $1.5 billion in annual savings, starting in 2020-21.
• Reviewing the Fiscal and Distributional Analysis of the Federal Carbon Pricing System
  Feb 4, 2020 • RP-1920-024
  The federal carbon pollution pricing “backstop” system is based on the Greenhouse Gas Pollution Pricing Act, adopted on June 21, 2018. It has two components: a charge on fossil fuels, and a regulatory system for large industry, known as the “output-based pricing system” (OBPS).
• Economic and Fiscal Update 2019: Issues for Parliamentarians
  Dec 19, 2019 • RP-1920-023
  To assist parliamentarians in their pre-budget deliberations, this report highlights key issues arising from the Government’s Economic and Fiscal Update 2019.
• The Cost of Canada’s Surface Combatants: 2019 Update
  Jun 21, 2019 • RP-1920-021
  This report provides an updated cost estimate of the Canadian Surface Combatant (CSC) program from the 2017 PBO report, “The Cost of Canada’s Surface Combatants.” At the time of the previous cost analysis, the government had not yet selected a design for the new generation of warships. This update considers characteristics specific to the Type 26 design chosen by the government while incorporating updated information on the project’s timeline.
• Election Proposal Costing Baseline
  Jun 20, 2019 • RP-1920-019
  This report provides PBO’s economic and fiscal baseline projection for the 2019 election proposal costing period.
• Preliminary Findings on International Taxation
  Jun 20, 2019 • RP-1920-020
  This report presents PBO findings on international taxation, in response to Senator Percy E. Downe’s request to the Parliamentary Budget Officer in 2012. PBO finds that financial flows between Canada and certain jurisdictions are disproportionately large compared to their GDP, net cross border position and net trade flows. Some of these jurisdictions have been recognized as tax havens.
• Federal Program Spending on Housing Affordability
  Jun 18, 2019 • RP-1920-017
  This report is intended to help parliamentarians understand federal program spending on housing affordability. It is not clear that the National Housing Strategy will reduce the prevalence of housing need relative to 2017 levels. Overall, Canada’s National Housing Strategy largely maintains current funding levels for current activities and slightly reduces targeted funding for households in core housing need. CMHC’s assumptions regarding the impact of NHS outputs on housing need do not reflect the likely impact of those programs on the prevalence of housing need.
• Closing the gap: carbon pricing for the Paris target (Revised June 20, 2019)
  Jun 13, 2019 • RP-1920-016
  This report provides an estimate of the additional carbon price that would be needed to achieve Canada’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions target in 2030 under the Paris Agreement, as well as an estimate of the corresponding impact on the Canadian economy.
• Analysis of Active versus Passive Management of Canadian Public Pension Plans
  Jun 10, 2019 • RP-1920-015
  The purpose of the report is to provide analysis on the performance of actively managed federal public pension funds, specifically the funds managed by the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board (CPPIB) and the Public Sector Pension Investment Board (PSPIB), and to compare the returns to that of a passive management strategy.
• Cost Estimate of the Removal of GST from Residential Energy Use (Revised)
  May 30, 2019 • RP-1920-014
  This report is a response to a motion adopted by the House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance to estimate the financial cost of private Members’ bills and motions on the Order of Precedence in the House of Commons. Motion M-230 was placed on the Order of Precedence on 11 April 2019 and states that the government should remove the Goods and Services Tax (GST) from home energy bills.
• Costs Associated with Replacing the Federal Pay System
  May 16, 2019 • RP-1920-013-M
  This report provides an independent estimate of the cost of replacing the Phoenix pay system, the current payroll processing system that administers pay for federal public servants.
• Costs Associated with Replacing the Federal Pay System
  May 16, 2019 • RP-1920-013
  This report provides an independent estimate of the cost of replacing the Phoenix pay system, the current payroll processing system that administers pay for federal public servants.
• Costing Budget 2019 Measures
  Apr 30, 2019 • RP-1920-011
  In preparation for the upcoming 2019 federal general election, PBO used the Budget 2019 as an opportunity to assess its existing capacity to cost a variety of policy initiatives within a limited period.
• Economic and Fiscal Outlook - April 2019
  Apr 30, 2019 • RP-1920-012
  Consistent with the Parliamentary Budget Officer’s legislated mandate, this report provides PBO’s economic and fiscal outlook.
• The Government’s Expenditure Plan and Main Estimates for 2019-20
  Apr 29, 2019 • RP-1920-010
  This note examines the federal government’s Expenditure Plan and Main Estimates for 2019-20, which supports the second appropriation bill that will seek Parliament’s approval of $125.7 billion.
• Cost Estimate for Implementing Structured Intervention Units as set out in Bill C-83 and Related Proposals
  Apr 25, 2019 • RP-1920-008
  Bill C-83 would replace segregation of inmates with structured intervention units (SIUs). SIUs would offer inmates a minimum of two more hours of time out of their cell per day and greater opportunities to participate in correctional interventions. Canada’s 2018 Fall Economic Statement allocated $300 million over six years and $71.7 million ongoing, towards staffing and other resources required to run SIUs. We believe this is an appropriate level of funding for CSC’s expected number of SIUs and associated staffing.
• Fiscal and Distributional Analysis of the Federal carbon Pricing System
  Apr 25, 2019 • RP-1920-009
  This report provides a fiscal and distributional analysis of implementing a federal carbon pricing system in Ontario, New Brunswick, Manitoba and Saskatchewan. PBO estimates that the federal government will generate $2.63 billion in carbon pricing revenues in 2019-20. The vast majority of revenues ($2.43 billion) will be generated through the fuel charge; the balance, roughly $197 million, will be generated by output-based pricing.
• Revisiting the Middle Class Tax Cut
  Apr 18, 2019 • RP-1920-007
  This report provides ex post (after the fact) estimates of the fiscal impact of the middle class tax cut in tax years 2015 and 2016.
• Bill C-266: Increasing the duration of parole ineligibility
  Apr 16, 2019 • RP-1920-006
  In February 2016, the Standing Committee on Finance of the House of Commons requested that the PBO provide a detailed and comprehensive costing analysis of private members bills and motions appearing on the Private Member’s Business Order of Precedence. Bill C-266, which increases parole ineligibility for certain offenders, was placed on the Order of Precedence on 1 November 2018. This report provides an estimate of the cost of implementing Bill C-266.
• Projecting the Revenues and Expenses of Canada Student Loans Program
  Apr 11, 2019 • RP-1920-005
  This report provides a description of the PBO model and an estimate of the revenues and expenses associated with the direct loans regime of Canada Student Loans Program (CSLP).
• Infrastructure Update: Investments in the Territories
  Apr 9, 2019 • RP-1920-004
  The report examines capital investments made by territories with the objective to identify the incremental impact of federal infrastructure funding on their capital spending in 2016-17 and 2017-18.
• Costing of a 360-hour Eligibility Threshold for Sickness Benefits
  Apr 4, 2019 • RP-1920-002
  This report provides a cost estimate for a measure that would reduce the eligibility threshold necessary to claim sickness benefits from 600 to 360 hours of insurable employment.
• Cost Estimate of an Increase in the Duration of Employment Insurance (EI) Sickness Benefits
  Apr 4, 2019 • RP-1920-003
  This report provides a cost estimate for a measure that would extend the duration of employment insurance (EI) sickness benefits from 15 weeks to 50 weeks.
• The impact of the Canada – United States – Mexico Agreement on prescription drug expenditures in Canada
  Apr 2, 2019 • RP-1920-001
  This report estimates the additional pharmacy-dispensed prescription drug expenditures for Canadian consumers that would result from the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA). A two-year extension of data protection for biologics will delay the introduction of biosimilars for some expensive drugs. This would likely keep prices higher than they otherwise would have been.