Reports - 2023-24

• The Government’s Expenditure Plan and Main Estimates for 2024-25
  Mar 7, 2024 • RP-2324-028-S
  This report examines the federal government’s Expenditure Plan and Main Estimates for 2024-25, which supports the first two appropriation bills that outline $449.2 billion in planned spending. Parliament’s approval is required for $191.6 billion.
• Economic and Fiscal Outlook — March 2024
  Mar 5, 2024 • RP-2324-027-S
  This report provides a baseline projection to help parliamentarians gauge potential economic and fiscal outcomes under current policy settings.
• Planned Capital Spending under Canada’s Defence Policy: 2024 Update
  Feb 28, 2024 • RP-2324-025-C
  This report analyses Department of National Defence planned capital spending under Strong, Secure, Engaged, announced in 2017, as of 2024.
• Supplementary Estimates (C) 2023-24
  Feb 22, 2024 • RP-2324-026-S
  This report provides a detailed analysis of the Government’s third Supplementary Estimates for the 2023-24 fiscal year, which seeks Parliament’s approval of $8.9 billion.
• Refocusing Government Spending in 2023-24
  Feb 12, 2024 • RP-2324-024-C
  In response to a request by the Standing Committee on Government Operations and Estimates, this report provides an overview of the $500 million in announced reductions in spending on consulting, professional services and travel for 2023-24 proposed in Budget 2023.
• Income dynamics of new immigrants to Canada
  Jan 12, 2024 • RP-2324-023-S
  This report highlights some recent changes in the relative income of new immigrants to Canada. During the period 2014 to 2018 their relative income went from 55 per cent to 78 per cent of that of all Canadian tax filers. We explore some of the characteristics of that change (source countries, destination province, education and occupation, etc.) and a potential impact on measured productivity growth of Canada.
• Fall Economic Statement 2023: Issues for Parliamentarians
  Dec 7, 2023 • RP-2324-022-S
  To assist parliamentarians in their budgetary deliberations, this report highlights key issues arising from the 2023 Fall Economic Statement.
• Costing Support for EV Battery Manufacturing
  Nov 17, 2023 • RP-2324-020-S
  This report estimates the total cost of federal and provincial government support for EV battery manufacturing announced to date that will be provided to Northvolt, Volkswagen and Stellantis-LGES. The report also provides estimates of the break-even timelines for the announced production subsidies.
• The Canada Disability Benefit: Model and Scenarios
  Nov 16, 2023 • RP-2324-019-S
  This report presents the PBO’s microsimulation model to estimate the cost of the Canada Disability Benefit. The model can accommodate many different design elements of the announced benefit. In addition, the report explores the cost of three hypothetical implementations of the Canada Disability Benefit.
• Supplementary Estimates (B) 2023-24
  Nov 16, 2023 • RP-2324-021-S
  This report provides a detailed analysis of the Government’s second Supplementary Estimates for the 2023-24 fiscal year, which seeks Parliament’s approval of $20.7 billion.
• The Life Cycle Cost of Canada’s F-35 Program – A Fiscal Analysis
  Nov 2, 2023 • RP-2324-018-S
  This report presents a cost analysis of Canada’s F-35 program, including estimates for the Development, Acquisition, Operations and Sustainment, and Disposal phases.
• Economic and Fiscal Outlook – October 2023
  Oct 13, 2023 • RP-2324-017-S
  This report provides a baseline projection to help parliamentarians gauge potential economic and fiscal outcomes under current policy settings.
• Cost Estimate of a Single-payer Universal Drug Plan
  Oct 12, 2023 • RP-2324-016-S
  This report estimates the total and incremental public cost of a single-payer universal drug plan— “Pharmacare”—over 2023-24 to 2027-28. The estimated cost reflects a national application of Quebec’s Régie de l’assurance maladie du Québec (RAMQ) formulary with universal access and a copayment scheme.
• A Force Structure Model of Canada’s Military: Costs and Personnel
  Sep 26, 2023 • RP-2324-010-S
  This report details the development of a framework to address the costs of military capabilities and the potential trade-offs implied should a government policy require the adjustment of the structure of the Canadian Armed Forces.
• Overview of the Government’s Digital Service Transformation
  Sep 15, 2023 • RP-2324-013-M
  This report is in response to a request by Senator Colin Deacon to estimate the financial cost of Motion No. 107 – That the Senate call on the Government of Canada to replace its outdated program delivery and information technology systems by urgently accelerating the implementation of user-friendly, digital solutions that transform the public service delivery experience of Canadians, and ultimately reduces the cost of program delivery.
• Break-even Analysis of Production Subsidies for Stellantis-LGES and Volkswagen
  Sep 12, 2023 • RP-2324-015-S
  This report provides a break-even analysis of the support for Stellantis-LG Energy Solutions and Volkswagen to estimate the period over which government revenues generated from their EV battery manufacturing plants will be equal to the total amount of production subsidies announced by the governments of Canada and Ontario.
• Changes to the Alternative Minimum Tax as Proposed in Budget 2023
  Sep 7, 2023 • RP-2324-012-S
  This report estimates the impact of changes to the Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT) proposed in Budget 2023. Some high-earning individuals and trusts have enough tax credits, deductions and other tax incentives that their income tax as a percentage of their income is lower than that of other taxpayers. The AMT aims to ensure that higher-income taxpayers pay at least a base rate of tax. Budget 2023 proposed changes to the AMT that would make the highest-income earners pay a greater proportion of the total AMT revenue.
• Creative Export Strategy – A Budgetary Analysis
  Aug 31, 2023 • RP-2324-014-M
  This report provides a budgetary analysis of the Creative Export Strategy.
• Fiscal Sustainability Report 2023
  Jul 27, 2023 • RP-2324-011-S
  This report provides PBO’s assessment of the sustainability of government finances over the long term for the federal government, subnational governments and public pension plans.
• Household purchasing power at different income levels since 2019
  Jun 22, 2023 • RP-2324-009-S
  This report examines household purchasing power at different income levels since 2019. The Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO) assessed the share of income needed to purchase a 2019 basket of goods and services and tracked changes over time based on two income measures—market income and disposable income—for three periods. The first of these looks at quarters 19Q4 and 21Q1 to assess household purchasing power almost a year after the start of the pandemic. The period from 21Q1 to 22Q2 was then examined to consider the sharp rise in prices. Lastly, the period from 19Q4 to 22Q4 PBO was delved into to estimate households’ situation as the pandemic drew to its end.
• Update on the energy sector and agriculture: federal revenue forgone from tax provisions
  Jun 15, 2023 • RP-2324-007-S
  This report is a supplement to the PBO’s report entitled “Energy sector and agriculture: federal revenue forgone from tax provisions.” It examines the cost of tax provisions specific to fossil fuel development and the lost revenue from exemptions to the carbon levy for agriculture.
• Fiscal Analysis of Canada’s Support for Volkswagen’s Electric Vehicle Battery Manufacturing Plant
  Jun 14, 2023 • RP-2324-008-S
  In response to interest from several Members of Parliament, this report provides a static cost estimate of the entirety of the Government of Canada’s funding support for Volkswagen’s electric vehicle battery manufacturing plant, as well as the economic and budgetary impacts of the plant’s construction.
• Supplementary Estimates (A) 2023-24
  May 30, 2023 • RP-2324-006-S
  This report provides a detailed analysis of the Government’s first Supplementary Estimates for the 2023-24 fiscal year, which seeks Parliament’s approval of $20.5 billion.
• Responsiveness of taxable income to changes in the corporate income tax rate of small businesses
  May 26, 2023 • RP-2324-005-S
  This report provides estimates of the responsiveness (commonly referred to as “elasticity” in the economic literature) of taxable income to a change in the corporate income tax rate. Having a reliable estimate of this responsiveness allows for better estimation of the impact on federal revenue of proposed changes to the corporate income tax system.
• A Distributional Analysis of the Clean Fuel Regulations
  May 18, 2023 • RP-2324-004-S
  This report provides a distributional analysis of the Clean Fuel Regulations that will require reductions in the carbon intensity of gasoline and diesel used in Canada.
• Budget 2023: Issues for Parliamentarians
  Apr 13, 2023 • RP-2324-003-S
  To assist parliamentarians in their budgetary deliberations, this report highlights key issues arising from Budget 2023.
• Personnel Expenditure Analysis — Update
  Apr 4, 2023 • RP-2324-002-S
  This report provides an analysis of the Government’s spending on personnel over 2020-21 to 2021-22. The report highlights some key findings that were generated from the Personnel Expenditure Analysis Tool, PBO’s interactive online tool.
• Cost of removing the tax exemptions for Real Estate Investment Trusts
  Apr 3, 2023 • RP-2324-001-M
  This report provides an estimate of the additional revenues that could be collected by the federal government if tax exemptions for Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) are removed, and REITs are subjected to the statutory corporate income tax rate of 38 per cent.