Electric Vehicle Availability Standard: Potential Impacts on Ownership Costs and Charger Supply

Aug 29, 2024

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Under the Electric Vehicle Availability Standard, manufacturers will be required to ensure light-duty fleet offerings consistent with a zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) market share of 20 per cent in 2026, 60 per cent in 2030 and 100 per cent in 2035. This report provides an analysis of how the relative ownership costs of ZEV and internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, as well as the market provision of charging infrastructure, may need to adjust to meet the ZEV sales targets under the standard by 2030.

Highlights

The Electric Vehicle (EV) Availability Standard will compel automotive manufacturers to ensure fleet offerings of light-duty vehicles consistent with a zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) market share of 20 per cent in 2026, 60 per cent in 2030 and 100 per cent in 2035—significantly above the market share projected under a baseline scenario without the standard.

Assuming that preferences, technology and policies remain unchanged from a baseline scenario without the standard, PBO estimates that the relative ownership cost of battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) would need to decrease by 31 per cent to meet the ZEV sales target of 60 per cent in 2030. That is, the ownership cost of ZEVs relative to internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles in 2030 under the standard would need to be 31 per cent lower compared to the baseline scenario without the standard in 2030.

PBO estimates that achieving the ZEV sales targets under the EV Availability Standard would increase the market supply of L2 and L3 (fast) charging ports by 33,900 and 4,700 units, respectively, above baseline levels in 2030—somewhat less than what is required according to a recent needs analysis commissioned by Natural Resources Canada.