Report

A Distributional Analysis of the Federal Fuel Charge – Update

Oct 10, 2024

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This report provides an update of PBO’s distributional analysis of the federal fuel charge.

Supplementary Data (xlsx)

Highlights

Considering only the fiscal impact of the federal fuel charge, PBO estimates that the average household in each of the backstop provinces (that is, all provinces except Quebec and British Columbia) in 2030-31 will see a net gain, receiving more from the Canada Carbon Rebate than the total amount they pay in the federal fuel charge (directly and indirectly) and related Goods and Services Tax.
Relative to household disposable income, the fiscal-only impact of the federal fuel charge is progressive. That is, lower income households face lower net costs (larger net gains) compared to higher income households, reflecting the per capita nature of the Canada Carbon Rebate.
In 2030-31, taking into consideration both fiscal and economic impacts, PBO estimates that the average household in each of the backstop provinces will see a net cost, paying more in the federal fuel charge and related Goods and Services Tax, as well as receiving lower incomes (due to the fuel charge), compared to the Canada Carbon Rebate they receive and lower net taxes they pay (due to lower incomes).
PBO estimates of household net cost (fiscal and economic impacts) of the federal fuel charge show a more progressive impact compared to the fiscal-only impact estimates. Given that the fuel charge lowers employment and investment income, which makes up a larger share of total income for higher income households, their net cost is higher.
For the backstop provinces, Environment and Climate Change Canada estimates that the fuel charge will account for almost 13 million tonnes of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions in 2030 and will lower real gross domestic product (GDP) by 0.6 per cent relative to a scenario without the fuel charge, but with all other emissions-reduction measures maintained, including large-emitter trading systems.