Report

Model for Projecting the Number of Households in Core Housing Need

Jan 28, 2025

This report outlines a model developed to project the number of households in core housing need.

Highlights

Core housing need is primarily a function of changes in shelter costs relative to incomes. Homeowners with mortgages have seen increased shelter costs both due to rising interest rates and rising average mortgage debt. Renters have seen increases in shelter costs driven by increases in market rents.
Increased immigration contributes to higher rents but also, over the longer term, towards increased supply which moderates those higher rents. Recent increases in rents are primarily attributed to the delay between increased demand from immigration and the adjustment of the housing supply.
The primary contribution of targeted housing programs is to avoid a large loss of rent-geared-to-income housing for low-income households which would have otherwise occurred. The Canada Housing Benefit (CHB) also provides income support to a growing number of households, although most beneficiaries will remain in housing need. New Affordable Housing programs support the creation of some new below-market housing, but their impact is less when looking at the number of affordable units attributable to the federal share of project costs.
New tax expenditures and incentives for less restrictive zoning may contribute to housing supply; however, that impact is highly uncertain and will largely fall beyond our projection period.