Reports - 2021-22

• The Federal Cost of Minimum Sentences
  Mar 30, 2022 • RP-2122-035-S
  Minimum sentences require judges to impose a minimum penalty on persons convicted of a specific crime. Minimum sentences can result in judges issuing longer sentences. The issuance of longer sentences results in more inmates in federal custody which, in turn, increases the costs incurred by the Correctional Service of Canada (CSC). This report focuses on the minimum sentence for “Possession of a prohibited or restricted firearm with ammunition”. Persons convicted of “Possession of a prohibited or restricted firearm with ammunition” in each year continue to be sentenced to a total of 1,162 more years in federal custody than they were before the minimum was increased. The total cost associated with the additional 684 persons in custody and 467 persons on parole at a given point in time as a result of this minimum sentence is estimated to be $98 million/year. The effect of this minimum sentence persists despite the minimum sentence having been declared null and void by the courts. It is difficult to draw conclusions about the impact of other minimum sentences. It is also unclear, what effect, if any, the repeal of a minimum sentence would have on the severity of sentencing.
• International Comparison of the Canada Revenue Agency’s Performance
  Mar 29, 2022 • RP-2122-036-S
  This report compares Canada’s tax administration performance with that of comparable countries with a set of indicators derived from the International survey on Revenue Administration (ISORA) 2020. ISORA is administered every two years, collecting data on the previous two fiscal years from over 150 national or federal tax administrations around the globe.
• A Distributional Analysis of Federal Carbon Pricing under A Healthy Environment and A Healthy Economy
  Mar 24, 2022 • RP-2122-032-S
  This report provides a distributional analysis of federal carbon pricing under the Government’s A Healthy Environment and A Healthy Economy plan. April 17, 2024: Estimates of the economic impacts presented in this report (Table 3-1) reflect the implementation of federal-equivalent carbon pricing at the national level. The counterfactual scenario used in the report reflects the broad removal of carbon pricing—that is, the removal of the federal-equivalent fuel charge and output-based pricing system (OBPS). Estimates of household net costs incorporating “fiscal and economic impacts” reflect the broad economic impact of federal-equivalent carbon pricing. [April 17 2024 Additional Analysis](https://www.pbo-dpb.ca/en/additional-analyses--analyses-complementaires/BLOG-2425-003--distributional-analysis-carbon-pricing--analyse-distributive-tarification-carbone) July 4, 2024: Text in the March 24, 2022 version of this report was revised to ensure consistency with the economic impact of federal-equivalent carbon pricing (that is, the fuel charge and output-based pricing system). Estimates of economic impacts and household costs have not been revised.
• Planned Capital Spending Under Strong, Secure, Engaged – Canada’s Defence Policy: 2022 Update
  Mar 11, 2022 • RP-2122-033-S
  This report analyses Department of National Defence planned capital spending under Strong, Secure, Engaged, announced in 2017, as of 2022.
• The Government’s Expenditure Plan and Main Estimates for 2022-23
  Mar 10, 2022 • RP-2122-034-S
  This report examines the federal government’s Expenditure Plan and Main Estimates for 2022-23, which supports the first two appropriation bills that seek Parliament’s approval of $190.3 billion in budgetary authorities.
• Economic and Fiscal Outlook – March 2022
  Mar 1, 2022 • RP-2122-030-S
  This report provides a baseline projection to help parliamentarians gauge potential economic and fiscal outcomes under current policy settings.
• Supplementary Estimates (C) 2021-22
  Feb 28, 2022 • RP-2122-031-S
  This report presents a detailed analysis of the Government’s third Supplementary Estimates for the 2021-22 fiscal year, which seeks Parliament’s approval of $13.2 billion.
• House Price Assessment: A Borrowing Capacity Perspective
  Feb 17, 2022 • RP-2122-029-S
  This report provides an assessment of house prices relative to a household’s capacity to borrow and pay for the purchase of a house in selected Canadian cities.
• Cost Estimate of the Federal National Child Care Plan
  Feb 3, 2022 • RP-2122-028-S
  This report provides an estimated cost of the provincial and territorial aspects of the federal national child care plan announced in Budget 2021.
• Estimated Cost of Cleaning Canada’s Orphan Oil and Gas Wells
  Jan 25, 2022 • RP-2122-026-S
  This report provides an independent estimate of the cost of cleaning Canada’s orphan oil and gas wells.
• Economic and Fiscal Update 2021: Issues for Parliamentarians
  Jan 19, 2022 • RP-2122-027-S
  This report highlights key issues arising from the 2021 Economic and Fiscal Update to assist parliamentarians in their budgetary deliberations.
• Fiscal Analysis of Proposed Premium Reduction for Mortgage Insurance
  Dec 17, 2021 • RP-2122-025-S
  This note provides fiscal analysis of the Government’s proposal to reduce mortgage insurance premiums collected by the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC).
• The Polar Icebreaker Project: A Fiscal Analysis
  Dec 16, 2021 • RP-2122-024-S
  This report provides an independent cost estimate of the Development and Acquisition phases of the Polar Icebreaker Project. The Polar Icebreaker Project aims to replace the Canadian Coast Guard’s existing fleet of heavy icebreakers with two new heavy icebreakers built to modern specifications.
• Estimating the top tail of the family wealth distribution in Canada: updates and trends
  Dec 9, 2021 • RP-2122-023-M
  Senator Rosa Galvez requested that the PBO update the High-net-worth Family Database for the year 2019 and that the same methodology be applied to previous years in order to study the trends in the distribution of Canadian net wealth. PBO applies a modelling approach from a past report to estimate the top tail of the family wealth distribution in Canada for the year 2019. The approach is also applied to the years 1999, 2012, and 2016 in order to study the trends in wealth held by the wealthiest families in Canada. This report provides the details of the update and the results.
• Supplementary Estimates (B) 2021-22
  Dec 7, 2021 • RP-2122-020-S
  This note presents a detailed analysis of the Government’s second Supplementary Estimates for the 2021-22 fiscal year, which seeks Parliament’s approval of $8.7 billion.
• Energy sector and agriculture: federal revenue forgone from tax provisions
  Dec 7, 2021 • RP-2122-022-M
  Senator Rosa Galvez requested that the PBO estimate the cost of tax provisions specific to fossil fuel development including the deduction of resource related expenses and incentives for liquid natural gas (LNG) capital investment. She also requested an estimate of the lost revenue from exemptions to the carbon levy for agriculture. This report provides estimated revenue impacts for the items requested.
• Clean Water for First Nations: Is the Government Spending Enough?
  Dec 1, 2021 • RP-2122-021-M
  This report builds on the PBO’s 2017 report and responds to a request from Senator Renée Dupuis to examine budget sufficiency for First Nations water and wastewater systems on reserve.
• Expanded Fiscal Analysis of Federal Pay Equity
  Nov 30, 2021 • RP-2122-018-S
  During the 43rd Parliament, Ms. Jag Sahota, M.P. (Calgary Skyview), Ms Nelly Shin, M.P. (Port Moody - Coquitlam) and The Honourable Alice Wong, M.P. (Richmond Centre) requested the PBO provide an update to his report Fiscal Analysis of Federal Pay Equity, particularly in reference to regulations related to the Pay Equity Act posted in the Canada Gazette.
• Assessing the Insurance Properties of the Fiscal Stabilization Program
  Nov 25, 2021 • RP-2122-019-S
  This report assesses the insurance properties of the Fiscal Stabilization Program, its recent changes and proposed modifications.
• Bill C-83 and the Cost of Structured Intervention Units
  Nov 24, 2021 • RP-2122-015-M
  This report provides an updated estimate on Bill C-83 and the cost of implementing structured intervention units in federal correctional institutions. This report was prepared at the request of Senator Kim Pate.
• 2021 Election Proposal Costing Baseline
  Aug 16, 2021 • RP-2122-016-S
  This report presents PBO’s economic and fiscal baseline projection for the 2021 election proposal costing period.
• Financial Support for Air Canada
  Aug 12, 2021 • RP-2122-017-S
  This report is intended to help parliamentarians understand the financial support agreement that the Government of Canada entered into with Air Canada on April 12, 2021.
• Federal Program Spending on Housing Affordability in 2021
  Aug 10, 2021 • RP-2122-014-S
  This report is intended to help parliamentarians understand federal program spending on housing affordability. It provides an update on our 2019 report, Federal Program Spending on Housing Affordability in response to questions raised by parliamentarians. The planned spending profile for some of the programs identified in this report are dependent on final program design being confirmed.
• Cost Estimate for Motion 77: Improvements to Long-Term Care
  Aug 4, 2021 • RP-2122-013-M
  This report estimates the cost of implementing House of Commons Motion-77, which proposes several financially significant changes to long-term care for seniors. This report was prepared at the request of Mr. Paul Manly, MP for Nanaimo—Ladysmith.
• Revenue Estimates of M-68: One-time Tax on Extreme Wealth
  Jul 15, 2021 • RP-2122-012-M
  This report is in response to a request by Member of Parliament Nathaniel Erskine-Smith (Beaches–East York) to estimate the revenues from implementing a one-time tax on extreme wealth outlined in Motion M-68 placed on notice on February 11, 2021. Specifically, it presents PBO’s revenue estimates for imposing a one-time tax on net wealth accumulated up to the end of April 2021 by Canadian resident economic families.
• Fiscal Sustainability Report 2021
  Jun 30, 2021 • RP-2122-010-S
  This report provides PBO’s assessment of the sustainability of government finances over the long term for the federal government, subnational governments and public pension plans.
• Cost Estimate of the Firearm Buy-Back Program
  Jun 29, 2021 • RP-2122-011-M
  In response to a request by Member of Parliament Glen Motz (Medicine Hat—Cardston—Warner), this report estimates, under various scenarios, the cost of firearm compensation as part of the Government’s firearm buy-back program.
• Beyond Paris: Reducing Canada’s GHG Emissions by 2030
  Jun 23, 2021 • RP-2122-009-S
  This report assesses the impacts of the Government’s plan to exceed the 2030 reduction target for Canada’s greenhouse gas emissions under the Paris Agreement.
• Supplementary Estimates (A) 2021-22
  Jun 3, 2021 • RP-2122-008-S
  This note presents a detailed analysis of the Government’s first Supplementary Estimates for the 2021-22 fiscal year, which seeks Parliament’s approval of $24.0 billion.
• Impact Assessment of Budget 2021 Measures
  May 27, 2021 • RP-2122-007-S
  This report provides an assessment of the impact of Budget 2021 measures on PBO’s pre-budget economic and fiscal outlook.
• Cost Analysis of a Post-secondary Student Relief Package
  May 19, 2021 • RP-2122-006-M
  This report is in response to a request by Members of Parliament Leah Gazan (Winnipeg Centre) and Lindsay Mathyssen (London-Fanshawe) to examine the cost of a set of post-secondary education measures outlined in Private Member’s Motion M-75, *Implementation of a Post-secondary Student Relief Package*.
• Federal Spending on First Nations and Inuit Health Care
  May 18, 2021 • RP-2122-005-S
  Several parliamentarians expressed interest in a PBO analysis, in both dollar and per-capita terms, of provincial/territorial health care funding and funding for First Nations and Inuit by Indigenous Services Canada through the First Nations and Inuit Health Branch. This report provides an analytical overview of federal and provincial/territorial government health spending for the First Nations and Inuit population. It does not attempt to establish a spending gap between federal government health spending for First Nations and Inuit and provincial/territorial government health spending for all residents of Canada.
• Budget 2021: Issues for Parliamentarians
  May 5, 2021 • RP-2122-004-S
  To assist parliamentarians in their budgetary deliberations, this report highlights key issues arising from Budget 2021.
• Canada Infrastructure Bank Spending Outlook
  Apr 28, 2021 • RP-2122-003-S
  This report examines the current and projected status of the Canada Infrastructure Bank’s investment commitments and funding disbursements.
• Cost Estimate of an Excess Profits Tax
  Apr 27, 2021 • RP-2122-002-M
  This report estimates the federal corporate income tax revenues that would be generated if an additional 15 percent tax rate was applied to excessive profits earned by big firms in 2020.
• Distributional and Fiscal Analysis of a National Guaranteed Basic Income
  Apr 7, 2021 • RP-2122-001-S
  Several parliamentarians requested that the PBO prepare a distributional analysis of Guaranteed Basic Income using parameters set out in Ontario’s basic income pilot project, examine the impact across income quintiles, family types and gender, and identify the net federal revenue increase required to offset the net cost of the new program. This analysis also accounts for the behavioural response.